武汉市紫外线辐射强度特征分析及其预测模型的建立

The Characteristics of Ultraviolet Radiation Intensity in Wuhan and Its Meteorological Forecast Model

利用武汉市2011 ～ 2013年的紫外线辐射强度资料和同期气象资料,对武汉市紫外线辐射强度与气象条件的关系进行了分析与统计.结果表明,在没有其他因素的影响下,紫外线辐射强度日变化曲线与太阳高度角变化保持一致,基本呈现正态分布的特征;1～2月和11 ～ 12月紫外线辐射强度最小,3～ 10月较大,7～8月最大;近3年来武汉市年紫外线辐射强度值基本持平,无明显年际增减变化,其季节变化特征为紫外线辐射强度夏季＞春季＞秋季＞冬季;3年里紫外线辐射强度等级出现最少的为5级,仅69 d;出现最多的为4级,共667 d;紫外线辐射强度的变化与天气条件联系密切,对紫外线辐射强度与大气环境因子进行了相关分析,并得出了等级预测模型,预报效果较为满意.

The relationship between ultraviolet radiation intensity and meteorological factors in Wuhan is analyzed by using the detailed data of ultraviolet radiation intensity and meteorological data from 2011 to 2013. The results show that in the absence of other factors, the ultraviolet radiation intensity curve of diurnal variation keep consistent with the solar height angle, they basiely present the characteristics of normal distri- bution; the data of ultraviolet radiation intensity in January-February and November-December is the minimum, the data in March-October is higher, and in July-August reaches the maximum; the ultraviolet radiation intensity values remained stable in Wuhan City nearly three years, without obvious interannual change. The seasonal variation for the intensity of ultraviolet radiation in summer 〉 spring 〉 autumn 〉 winter; In the recent three years the ultraviolet radiation intensity grade for at least is five level, just only 69 days; and the most is four level, a total of 667 days ; ultraviolet radiation intensity closely link with the weather conditions, the intensity of ultraviolet radiation and atmospheric envi- ronmental factors are analyzed, the rating prediction model is obtained, the prediction effect is satisfactory.