基于GM(1,1)模型的混凝土碳化寿命预测

Prediction of concrete carbonation life based on GM( 1,1) model

碳化是影响混凝土结构耐久性的一个重要因素。利用灰色理论中GM(1,1)模型,以碳化深度为特征序列,进行老信息、新信息及新陈代谢3种不同模型模拟分析。选择相对平均误差最小的新陈代谢模型预测混凝土碳化寿命。分析表明,该模型原理简单实用,预测精度高,能够反映一般大气环境下混凝土碳化发展规律,可为实际工程混凝土结构耐久性分析提供有效方法。

Concrete carbonation is one of the important factors that affect the durability of concrete structures. According to the theory of grey GM （ 1,1 ） model, taking the carbonation depth as the feature sequence, three different models of old information, new information and metabolism information were analyzed and simulated. And then the metabolism model with the minimum rel- ative mean error was selected to predict the concrete carbonation life. The analysis result shows that the model theory is simple and practical, and can reflect the law of concrete carbonation development under the general atmospheric environment with high prediction accuracy, which can provide an effective method for analyzing the durability of concrete structure in practical engineer- ing.