低碳约束下我国能源供应保障的空间效应研究

Research on Space Effect of Energy Supply Security Under the Low Carbon Restriction

运用空间计量模型对2006—2012年我国31个省区能源供应保障的影响因素进行测算,将空间因素和低碳约束纳入研究框架,构建了基于空间面板数据的空间滞后模型、空间误差模型和空间杜宾模型,通过进行LM和Wald检验,选择时间固定和地区时间固定的空间杜宾模型,综合考虑空间效应、能源产量、产业结构、能源效率、能源消费结构、人均GDP和低碳约束等因素对我国省域能源供应保障的影响。研究发现,能源产量、产业结构、能源效率和人均GDP是影响能源供应保障的主要因素,且这些因素存在着明显的空间溢出效应。

This paper used the spatial econometric model by calculating the influence factors of the energy supply for 31 provinces in China from 2006 to 2012.The space factors and low carbon restriction were brought into the research framework. It constructed spatial lag model, spatial error model and spatial Durbin model based on spatial panel data. Through LM test and Wald test, it chose to adopt the fixed time and the Durbin model of regional fixed time. Considering spatial effects comprehensivly, energy production, industrial structure, energy efficiency, energy consumption structure, per capita GDP and low carbon constraints factors of provincial energy supply security in China. The research found that energy production, industrial structure, energy efficiency and GDP per capita were the main factors that influenced the energy supply security, and these factors existed obvious spatial spillover effects.