水资源制约的东营市人口经济承载规模评价

Evaluation of Population and Economy Carrying Capacity Based on Water Resources of Dongying

水资源是区域自然资源的重要组成部分,水资源承载力是判断水资源是否满足区域社会发展的重要指标。水资源短缺已经成为制约许多地区发展的关键因素。区域水资源承载潜力的评估,对区域经济发展规划的制定与产业布局调整具有重要参考价值。本研究在探讨水资源承载力概念的基础上,利用水资源供需平衡原理,结合东营市水利发展规划,对东营市人口、经济承载力进行评估。结果表明：水资源承载人口呈现周期性变化,可承载人口高峰分别在2010年和2030年出现,达到200.48万、169.859万,可承载人口低谷出现在2015年为158.572万;研究时段内,供水保障率为50%时2005~2013年人口、GDP均处于可载状态,其他年份为超载状态;供水保障率为75%时,人口和GDP基本处于超载状态。

Water resources is an important part of regional natural resources, and water resources carrying ca- pacity is a key index evaluating whether meet regional social development. Water shortage has become an im- portant factor restricting the development of many area. The evaluation of regional water resources carrying po- tential,has important reference value for the establishment of regional economic development plan and adjust- ment of industrial layout. This study evaluated carrying capacity of population and economics of Dongying, based on the discussion of the concept of water resources carrying capacity, using supply and demand balance theory of water resources, according to water conservancy development plan of Dongying. The results show that carrying population number present a kind of circle change trend. The maximum carrying population number respectively arrive at 2. 0048 million and 1. 69859million in 2010 and 2030. The minimum carrying population number reach to 1. 5857 million in 2015. During 2005 and 2013 population and GDP are under carry status, in other years,population number and GDP are at overloading state under the premise that security of water sup- ply was 50%. Population number and GDP are generally in a state of overload under the premise that security of water supply was 75%.