摘要
利用1955-2009年盘锦市大洼县气象站的地面逐日最高、最低气温资料,采用回归分析、5年滑动平均分析、Mann-Kendall分析等方法,研究了近55年盘锦市最高、最低气温序列的年、季周期变化的趋势及气温突变特征。结果表明：1955-2009年盘锦最高、最低年平均气温均呈上升趋势,99%的置信水平下,气温的倾向率分别为0.15和0.48℃/10年。最高、最低季气温变化特征：冬、春、秋季气温总体呈上升趋势,冬季最低气温季平均贡献最大;年最高平均气温的突变时间在1991年;四季最低平均气温的突变时间集中在1982-1984年,较辽宁省平均水平提前2-4年;四季最高平均气温变化较无规律。
According to the daily maximum and minimum ground air temperature data of Weather Station of Dawa County in Panjin City during 1955 - 2009,through adopting the methods of regression analysis,5- year moving average analysis,Mann-Kendall analysis and so on,we analyzed the annual and seasonal changing trends of maximum and minimum air temperature series as well as the air temperature mutation characteristics in Panjin city in recent 55 years. The results indicated that： from the year1955 to 2009,both the maximum and the minimum annual average air temperature in Panjin showed a rising trend,and their tendency rate was 0. 15 and 0. 48 ℃ /10 a respectively at 99% confidence level. The changes in the maximum and minimum average air temperature in winter,spring and autumn all showed an upward tendency in general,and the minimum air temperature in winter had the largest contribution to seasonal average air temperature. The mutation of the maximum annual average air temperature appeared in the year 1991. The mutations of the minimum average air temperature in 4 seasons in Panjin city mainly happened during 1982 -1984,being 2 - 4 years earlier than those in whole Liaoning province. The changes in the maximum average air temperature in 4seasons in Panjin city were relatively irregular.
出处
《江西农业学报》
CAS
2015年第3期83-86,共4页
Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi
