南通市参考作物腾发量长期变化趋势分析

Long-term Variation Trend Analysis of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in Nantong City

基于南通站和吕泗站1961~2011年的逐日气象资料,利用彭曼公式计算两站的参考作物腾发量（ET0）,运用滑动平均、累计距平、M-K等方法分析了两站ET0的变化趋势及不同季节的变化特征。结果表明,长系列中吕泗站ET0有明显上升趋势,南通站ET0变化趋势不明显,但1980年代中期ET0有显著上升趋势;吕泗站和南通站ET0春季上升显著,而降水、相对湿度与ET0具有负相关性,由此可知南通市ET0变化对南通市作物生长存在较大不利影响。

Based on the daily meteorological data at Nantong and Lvsi stations from 1961 to 2011,the reference crop evapotranspiration（ET0）was calculated by Penman-Monteith equation.The trend and season variation characteristics of ET0 were analyzed by using moving average method,cumulative anomaly method and Mann-Kendall test method.The results show that there was an upward trend for ET0 at Lvsi station and the ET0 at Nantong station was not obvious.But after the mid-1980 s,the trend of ET0 at the Nantong and Lvsi station had a significant upward trend.There was a significant upward trend in spring.As the precipitation and the relative humidity had a negative correlation with the ET0,the trends of ET0 in Nantong City is adverse to the spring crops.