基于双向交互式回归模型的镇江站高潮位预报

Peak Tide Level Forecasting for Zhenjiang Hydrological Station Based on Bidirectional Interactive Regression Model

感潮河段受上游径流和下游潮波的双向交互作用影响,机理复杂,预报困难,寻找合适的方法对感潮河段的潮位进行预报非常关键。以镇江站为例,考虑洪潮要素的交互作用,依据因果分析方法,结合统计学理论,引入双向交互式回归方程,建立日最高潮位预报模型,并用该模型对镇江站历史资料进行模拟检验。结果表明,双向交互式回归模型合理、实用,且预报精度较高。

Tidal river reach is influenced by upstream runoff and downstream tide wave.The mechanism of integration of runoff and tide is complicated,and the tide level forecasting is difficult.It is significant to develop a reasonable method to predict water level of tidal reach.Zhenjiang hydrological station was selected as a research object.Considering the interactive action of runoff and tide,methodology of causal analysis and statistical theory are used to establish the peak tide level forecasting model with introducing bidirectional interactive regression equation.This model has been simulated and verified by the historical data.The results show that the model is reasonable and useful with high forecasting precision.