基于博弈论的大型涵洞安全评估模糊可拓模型及其应用

Fuzzy Extension Model of Large Culvert Safety Assessment Based on Game Theory and Its Application

鉴于目前评估涵洞安全性态仍采用传统经验评估法,对各评价指标仅限于定性分析,且未考虑各指标的重要性程度,以影响大型涵洞安全性态的因素多具有模糊性和不确定性的特点为基础,根据物元概念,将研究对象、评估指标和量值联为一体,利用博弈论计算层次分析法和熵权法的组合权重,建立了涵洞安全评估模糊可拓模型,并运用该模型评估了淮河流域某座穿堤箱涵的安全等级,结果符合实际情况,表明该模型可实现对涵洞安全性态的定量化和动态性评估,能广泛应用于其他水工建筑物的安全评估中。

Recently culvert safety evaluation has always adopted conventional experienced method in which the evaluation index was in qualitative analysis and the importance of the index was not considered.Based on the characteristics of fuzziness and uncertainty of relevant factors,the research object,evaluation index and normalized value were integrated into one part according to the concept of matter element.And then the game theory was applied to determine the mixed index weight of AHP theory and entropy weight method.Thus,the fuzzy extension model of culvert safety assessment was established.Finally,a certain corss-levee box culvert in Huaihe Basin was evaluated with this model and the result is consistent with actual situation.It shows that the model can describe the safety condition of culvert dynamically and quantitatively,which can be applied in the safety assessment of other hydraulic structures.