基于事件树法的小型震损水库群溃坝风险分析及应用

Dam Break Risk Analysis of Group of Small Earthquake-damaged Reservoirs and Its Application Based on Event Tree Method

分析小型震损水库群的溃坝风险程度对确定除险加固顺序和资金利用方式有重要意义。针对四川省安县震损水库群,采用事件树法计算出每座水库的溃坝概率,再通过溃坝后果综合评价函数计算每座水库的溃坝后果,以确定溃坝风险程度,将所有水库的风险由大到小排序,最终确定区域小型震损水库群的除险加固顺序。实例计算表明,该方法简单、实用,有利于正确认识和评定震损水库群的溃坝风险程度。

Analysis of the dam break risk of group of small earthquake-damaged reservoirs is important to determine the order of reinforcement and use patterns of the funds.In connection with earthquake-damaged reservoirs in Anxian County of Sichuan Province,the dam break probability of each reservoir is calculated by event tree method.And then the dam failure of each reservoir is calculated to determine the dam break risk degree of each reservoir by using comprehensive evaluation function.At the same time,the risk of all reservoirs is sorted from large to small.Finally,the order of reinforcement of regional small earthquake-damaged reservoirs is determined.The example shows that the method is simple and practical,which is beneficial to correctly understand and assess dam break risk of group of small earthquake-damaged reservoirs.