青岛市交通基础设施供给与城镇化的关系

Relationship between the Traffic Infrastructure Supply and Urbanization in Qingdao

基于青岛市统计信息网站1990年至2013年的年度数据,运用格兰杰因果检验、VAR模型、脉冲响应等计量方法,对青岛市交通基础设施供给与城镇化水平关系进行分析,结果表明:交通基础设施供给对提高城镇化率有正向贡献,其对城镇化率的影响短期内尤为明显;二者之间存在稳定计量关系,交通基础设施供给提高1个百分点,城镇化率将提高0.005个百分点。交通基础设施供给对于城镇化率提高的影响力度有较大提升空间,因此提高运输效率应当成为未来交通基础设施建设的重点。

Based on the annual data from 1990 to 2013 in Qingdao＇s statistical information website,the relationship between traffic infrastructure supply and urbanization was analyzed. By means of the granger causality test,VAR model and impulse response,the paper comes to a conclusion that traffic infrastructure supply has a positive effect on urbanization rate and the effect is more obvious in short term. There is a stable relationship between traffic infrastructure supply and urbanization rate,which means that urbanization rate increases by 0. 005 percentage point responding to 1 percent rise of traffic infrastructure supply. The effect of traffic infrastructure supply on urbanization rate could be enhanced,so the efficiency improvement of traffic system should be the key in the future traffic infrastructure construction.