中药材川芎的价格波动分析

Analysis of price fluctuation of traditional Chinese medicine chuanxiong

以川产道地药材川芎为代表,探讨自1985年政府放开大宗药材价格管制后,部分药材出现价格大幅波动的原因。本文用图表反映1985-2012年的川芎价格波动情况,构建价格GARCH模型,表明该药材的波动是一种无序波动。分析影响其价格的供需因素,明确川芎价格的巨幅波动主要来自游资炒作,并提出促进药材种植、保护药农利益的政策措施。

Taking Chuanxiong as an example, to investigate the reason of the price fluctuation of traditional Chinese medical materials after the price control has been liberalized by our national government since 1985. The price fluctuation of Chuanxiong from 1985 to 2012 was reflected by figures and tables, and a GARCH model was constructed, which showed that the fluctuation was unordered. The hot money speculation was the main factor affecting the price of Chuanxiong. Policy measures promoting the cultivation of medicinal herbs and protecting farmer interest were also suggested.