WRF模式在“大洋一号”随船预报中的应用

Weather forecasting with WRF model for “Da yang No.1”

首次使用WRF模式对"大洋一号"科考船第二十六航次第二航段大西洋工作海区进行了风场和气压场数值预报,并对预报结果与实况资料进行了对比分析。结果表明,在资料稀少的大洋科考工作海区,WRF模式预报的天气形势变化与实况完全吻合,其定点的风速、风向和气压预报误差都比较小。尤其是风场能较好的反映出北大西洋10 m风的变化趋势,可以有效弥补大洋科考海区资料短缺的不足。根据WRF模式数值预报图做出的主观预报与船测实况吻合程度较高,为大洋科考海区风场预报提供了一种新的途径,为今后开展大洋考察工作海区精细化业务预报打下基础。

In this paper, the WRF model is used in weather forecasting for Scientific Ocean expeditions for the first time. According to analysis of sea level pressure and 10 m wind outputted by the WRF model, the results from the WRF model are almost agreement with actual weather over the scientific investigation sea. Wind outputted by the WRF Model could indicate variation characteristics of actual 10 m wind over the North Atlantic Ocean. Error analysis shows that absolute error of wind speed is about between 0.1 m/s to 1.5 m/s. The absolute error of wind direction is about between 1° to 15°. As for sea level pressure, its absolute error is about 0.1 h Pa to0.3 h Pa. Subjective forecasting based on the WRF model is in close proximity to ship observation. The WRF model could be a useful tool in weather forecasting for the marine scientific study.