水资源系统风险评估研究进展及展望

Progress and prospect of study on risk assessment of water resources system

介绍了水资源系统风险评估指标体系构建和风险评估方法研究进展,着重分析了多种风险评估方法在实践中的优缺点和适用性,总结了传统统计学方法的不足和系统分析方法的局限性及新方法的发展前景,提出了结合数据特征综合利用所需评估方法,同时也为更好地建立水资源风险评估体系奠定了理论基础。

Risk assessment of water resources system is the key to ensure the water resources security and its sustainable utilization. The index system establishment and methods of risk assessment of water resources system were detailedly reviewed in the study. Firstly, the advantages, disadvantages and applicability of the various assessment methods in practice were analyzed. Then, the shortage of the traditional statistics methods, the limitation of the system analysis methods and the development prospect of the new methods were summarized. Finally, the best method for risk assessment of water resources system, that the risk could be assessed by a method combination based on data characteristics, was proposed. The study provided a theoretical foundation for risk assessment of water resources system.