TOD真的需要公共交通吗?——轨道交通可达性以外的重要因素探讨

Does TOD Need the T? On the Importance of Factors Other Than Rail Access

以公共交通为导向的发展模式(TOD)通常包括在轨道交通车站周边新建住房。引导城市按照这样的模式发展,其目的部分在于减少气候变化、污染以及机动车导致的拥堵。但是,新建住房可能会更容易吸引那些开车较多的富裕家庭,相比房屋所有权和大小、停车供给、街区和分区建筑环境,轨道交通可达性对汽车拥有和使用的影响可能也较弱。通过调查居住在新泽西州北部10个轨道交通车站2英里半径范围内的家庭,收集有关房龄和类型、路外停车位可达性、工作和非工作的出行方式、人口特征以及选择所住街区原因的数据。对调查数据进行地理编码,并与实地调查的路内停车数据、街区和分区建筑环境指标等数据相融合。分析这些因素如何与调查中所记录的汽车拥有和使用情况相关联。住在轨道交通车站附近新房子内的家庭,在汽车拥有、利用汽车通勤以及购物出行频率上明显低于那些住在远离轨道交通的新房子内的家庭。但是,轨道交通可达性在这一差别中起到的作用很小。房屋类型和所有权、局部和分区密度、公共汽车服务、特别是路外及路内停车供给对差异的产生发挥了更重要的作用。

Transit-oriented developments （TODs） often consist of new housing near rail stations. Channel- ing urban growth into such developments is intended in part to reduce the climate change, pollution, and congestion caused by driving. But new housing might be expected to attract more affluent households that drive more, and rail access might have smaller effects on auto ownership and use than housing tenure and size, parking availability, and the neighborhood and subregional built environments. I surveyed households in northern New Jersey living within two miles of 10 rail stations about their housing age and type, access to off-street parking, work and non-work travel patterns, demographics, and reasons for choosing their neighborhoods. The survey data were geocoded and joined to on-street parking data from a field survey, along with neighborhood and subregional built environment measures. I analyzed how these factors were correlated with automobile ownership and use as reported in the survey. Auto ownership, commuting, and grocery trip frequency were substantially lower among households living in new housing near rail stations compared to those in new households farther away. But rail access does little to explain this fact. Housing type and tenure, local and subregional density, bus service, and particularly off-and on-street parking avail- ability, play a much more important role.