基于云模型及可达性分析的复杂配电网可靠性评估

Reliability Assessment of Complex Disrtibution Network Based on Cloud Model and Reachbility Analysis

传统的配电网可靠性评估是将元件故障率参数作为常数加以处理,但实际中要受到诸多因素影响,导致评估结果不准确。将云模型引入到配电网可靠性评估中,结合可达性分析法提出一种配电网可靠性评估的云模型算法。采用正向正态云发生器生成n组元件原始故障率参数,利用可达性分析法对每组云滴评估,得到n组可靠性指标;采用逆向正态云发生器将n组可靠性指标转化成以数字特征表示的可靠性指标云模型。算例验证结果表明,该算法是正确的,且能综合反映指标的具体变化和分布,符合人们对不确定性的认知方式。

Traditional distribution network reliability assessment takes component failure parameters as constant. In fact, the relia- bility will be affected by several factors and the inaccurate assessment is resulted. Based on cloud model and reachability analysis, a kind of cloud algorithm of reliability is proposed. Firstly, positive cloud generator is used to generate n sets of original cloud drops with failure parameters. Then , reachability analysis approach is used to assess these cloud drops to get n sets of reliability index . Finally, negative cloud generator is used to convert the n sets of reliability index into reliability cloud model. Experiment results indicate the al- gorithm effectiveness, and the algorithm can reflect the reliability index distribution.