中国天然气供应安全指数构建与建议

Some suggestions on the construction of an integrated gas supply security index in China

中国天然气供应存在的问题主要表现在国内天然气资源基础薄弱、现有天然气储备能力未能满足需求等方面。随着需求量的不断增加,国内天然气供应安全面临极大的挑战。因此,有必要整合天然气供应安全指标,构建出中国天然气供应安全指数(GSSI)。基于已有研究成果和对天然气贸易的主要因素的分析,结果表明:中国天然气供应安全主要受天然气单位产值能耗、天然气进口依存度、国内天然气产量与国内天然气总消费量之比以及地缘政治风险等4个指标影响。同时研究从近10年中国天然气的供应数据可知:2002—2005年国内天然气供过于求,供应安全主要受天然气单位产值能耗的变化影响;2006—2012年间,受用户使用及地缘政治的影响,我国天然气供应安全呈现"U"形波动。鉴于当前我国天然气供应安全风险呈上升趋势,建议从以下3个方面入手提高我国天然气供应安全:①提高天然气使用效率,降低天然气单位产值能耗;②扩大多元化战略,降低天然气进口依存度和地缘政治风险;③增加国内产量,常规与非常规天然气开发相结合。

The major issues in China gas supply include weak natural gas resources basis, insufficient gas storage capacity to meet the demand, etc. With the increasing demand on natural gas, natural gas supply security in China will face great challenges. Therefore, it is necessary to integrate the natural gas supply security indexes to reach a China natural gas supply security index （GSSI）. The ex- isting research and analysis on the main factors influencing natural gas trade show that the China natural gas supply security is mainly affected by natural gas unit output value energy consumption, natural gas import dependency, ratio of domestic natural gas produc tion to total consumption, and geopolitical risks. The gas supply data in the recent 10 years shows that from 2002-2005 the gas sup ply exceeds the demand in China, during which the supply security was mainly affected by natural gas unit output value energy con- sumption; in 2006-2012, under the effect of user consumption and geopolitics, the China gas supply security took on U shape fluctu- ation. In view of the rising trend of natural gas supply security of China, it is recommended to increase China＇s natural gas supply se- curity by：①improving the using efficiency and lowering natural gas unit output value energy consumption, ②diversifying natural gas sources and lowering natural gas import dependency and geopolitical risks, ③ increasing domestic production and developing con ventional and unconventional natural gas simultaneously.