2002—2011年中国新型城市化空间格局与收敛性分析

Spatial Pattern and Convergence of New Urbanization in China:2002-2011

根据新型城市化的内涵,从经济、社会、生态、城乡和城市现代等方面,构建中国新型城市化综合评价指标体系,运用熵值法,对2002—2011年中国31个省份进行测评。同时,运用空间分析工具和计量模型,考察了中国新型城市化水平的空间格局和收敛性。结果显示:1全国新型城市化水平呈现逐年上升的趋势,但东部、中部和西部的整体水平差异较大。2在空间格局分析上,各省域新型城市化水平在空间上存在显著的正相关,地域总体格局呈现三级梯度分布的趋势;新型城市化主要是靠长三角和珠三角两大城市群拉动的。3在收敛分析上,新型城市化存在显著的收敛性,应用合理空间模型(SEM)能加快收敛的时间。4在收敛检验方面,引入变量大大提高了模型的拟合程度,并且城镇人口比重最大。研究认为,要加强户籍制度改革,破除城乡二元结构,推动中国城市化健康发展。

According to the connotation of new urbanization, the paper constructs the comprehensive evaluation index system of new urbanization, including economy, society, ecology, urban-rural and city modernization. With the method of entropy, the new urbanization of 31 provinces in China is evaluated. At the same time, spatial pattern and convergence of China’s new urbanization are also analyzed by using spatial analyst tools and measurement models. The result shows that：（1） The new urbanization level of China has been increasing year by year, but there is the bigger difference of eastwestern overall level.（2） On the analysis of spatial pattern, the new urbanization level of Chinese provinces exists significant positive correlation in space, regional overall pattern presents a tendency of 3 gradient distribution, the development of China’s new urbanization is mainly pulled by the Yangtze Delta and Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration.（3） On the analysis of convergence, the new urbanization of Chinese exists significant convergence,applying reasonable spatial model（SEM） can accelerate convergent time.（4） In the aspect of convergent test, the introduction of variables greatly improves the fitting degree of the model, and urban population proportion is the largest of all the variables. Therefore, strengthening the reform of household registration system and breaking the urban- rural dual structure can promote healthy development of China’s urbanization.