禽流感疫情对禽蛋养殖业的冲击与政府应对

The impacts of bird flu on the poultry and egg industry and Government 's reactions

禽蛋产品和生产资料市场的均衡是禽蛋养殖业存在最优生产水平的前提。借助基于平滑转移函数的非线性单位根和非线性协整模型研究了禽流感疫情前后鸡蛋产品和生产资料之间的市场均衡。重点分析了爆发禽流感疫情后,鸡蛋产品和生产要素市场均衡的变化及市场向均衡的回复过程。研究表明,禽流感疫情是市场异常波动的主要影响因素;爆发禽流感时,市场向均衡调整的能力下降,大约需要3-4个月才能回复到均衡状态,而未爆发禽流感时,回复到均衡状态仅需要2个月;疫情对鸡蛋和仔苗价格变化比率影响不大,但对鸡蛋和饲料价格变化比率影响明显,疫情爆发前后鸡蛋和饲料市场之间的相关性出现了反转。为了降低疫情对禽蛋养殖业的冲击,政府应该加强疫情防疫、优化禽蛋养殖业空间布局、补贴非疫区养殖户饲料投入、协助保险机构优化并推广鲜活农产品价格保险、鼓励大中养殖户和相关企业参与饲料和鸡蛋的套期保值。

Market equilibriums of the poultry and egg industry and the related input industry are critical to the optimal input-output level of the poultry and egg industry. This paper analyzed market equilibriums of the poultry and egg industry and the related input industry before and after the outbreak of bird flu by using nonlinear unit root test and nonlinear cointegration test based on the endogenous structural common smooth transfer model. In addition, this paper also examined the changes of market equilibriums and the process of the return to equilibrium after bird flu broke out. Results show that bird flu is a main factor causing unusual fluctuations in both the egg market and the related input market. Market ability to return to equilibrium were weakened and it took about three to four months to return to equilibrium when bird flu broke out. However, it only took two months in normal condition. Epidemic cases had little influence on the change of the price ratio of egg and chicken but with obvious impact on the change of the price ratio of egg and feed. Correlation between egg and feed markets showed inversed relation before and after the outbreak of bird flu. In order to reduce the impact of bird flu on the egg industry, the Government should execute compulsory immunization, optimize space layout of the egg industry, subsidize egg producers in non-endemic regions, provide assistance to insurance companies to promote price insurance for fresh agricultural products, and encourage large egg producers and related enterprises to hedge their risks in futures market.