气候变化下四川盆地气候生产力时空响应

Temporal and spatial responses of crop climatic productivity to climate change in Sichuan Basin

利用四川盆地21个站点1961-2012年气象资料,应用Thomthwaite Memorial模型、EOF等数理方法对该区近52a气温、降水和气候生产力的时空变化进行分析。结果显示:1)四川盆地的气温倾向率为0.095℃/10 a,降水倾向率为-21.461 mm/10 a,"暖干化"是该区主要的气候变化特征,气候生产力以-4.91 kg/(hm2·10 a)的速率减少。2)四川盆地年均气温自南向北递减,气候倾向率中间低、两侧高;年降水量则中间低、两侧高;植物气候生产潜力除东北部的万源、达县、奉节外,其余地区均呈减少趋势。3)对不同气候变化情景分别计算气候生产力可知,"暖湿型"气候环境对该区气候生产力最有利,增产范围为5.74%-16.77%;"冷干型"气候环境则对气候生产力最不利,减产范围为5.92%-18.53%。当降水量减少幅度在10%以内,区域气候生产力是有利的;一旦降水量的减少幅度超过10%,区域气候生产力将有所减少,农业发展的不稳定性也将增加。

Based on the weather data of 21 meteorological stations in Sichuan Basin from 1961 to 2012, we analyzed the climate change trends and obtained the space-time distribution of crop climatic productivity during the past 52 years by using the Thomthwaite Memorial model and the EOF method. The results indicated that the warming-drought pattern was the main characteristic of climate change in Sichuan Basin, of which the linear tendencies of temperature, precipitation and crop climatic productivity were changed at the rates of 0.095 ~C/10 a, -21.461 mm/l 0 a, and -4.91 kg/ （hm2.10 a）, respectively. Spatially, the annual average temperature increased from north to south, while the annual precipitation showed a clear basin-shaped distribution. The crop climatic productivity generally showed a decreasing trend, except for the northeast cities such as Wanyuan, Daxian and Fengjie. When the crop climatic productivity was estimated under various climate change scenarios, the warming and humid climate environment was the most favorable for developing agriculture, by which crop yields might be increased by 5.74%-16.77%. In contrast, the cold and dry climate environment was the most unfavorable, by which crop yields might be decreased by 5.92%-18.53%. In general, we found that the crop climatic productivity in Sichuan Basin may show a gain if the precipitation is decreased by less 10%.