基于面板数据的宁杭城际出行方式选择行为研究

Analysis of Ninghang Intercity Travel Mode Choice Behavior Based on Panel Data

随着中国城市群的快速发展,城际交通出行环境发生了巨大的变化,因此城际出行者也会不断地重建自己的出行习惯,这就要求建立动态模型研究城际出行者出行行为和预测城际交通需求.本文调查出行者在宁杭城际高铁开通前后两个时期的出行信息,并且引入状态依赖变量表征出行者之前选择结果对之后出行选择的影响,建立了基于面板数据的城际出行方式选择动态模型.模型结果表明,基于面板数据的动态模型比传统的基于出行者单次出行数据的模型拥有更高精度.同时本文根据宁杭城际出行背景设置三组政策变化方案预测出行分担率,结果表明,当选择环境发生变化时,传统模型会高估出行方式分担率的变化程度.以上结论能更好地服务于中国城际交通的规划.

With the rapid development of Chinese urban agglomeration, new modes of intercity transport constantly emerge and the old ones are also continuously improved, which leads the intercity travelers to restructure their travel habits constantly. Thus, there is a need to build a dynamic model to study the intercity travel behavior of travelers and forecast travel demands. In this context, travel information before and after the opening of Ninghang Intercity Railway was investigated. The state dependence variable is introduced to express the effect of previous intercity travel mode choice decision on latter travel mode choice, the dynamic model of intercity travel mode choice is established based on panel data of two waves. The results indicate that the dynamic model performs better than the traditional models which only concern one wave travel data.According to the background of Ninghang intercity travel, three predicted policy scenarios are set to predict the mode spilt, the results show that the traditional model would overstate the degree of the change of mode spilt. The above conclusions can better serve for the Chinese intercity transportation planning.