基于DEMATEL的高含水油田水驱开发效果评价影响因素识别研究——以杏西油田为例

The Influencing Factors Recognition Research on High Water Cut Oilfield Water Flooding Development Effect Evaluation Based on DEMATEL Method——A case study of Xingxi oilfield

在高含水油田水驱开发效果评价中影响因素的选取决定了评价效果的好坏.不同区块、不同专家、不同时间可能所选取的指标体系也不一样,如何在众多指标中客观的识别出关键指标(关键影响因素)是要解决的问题.统计了国内外学者在高含水油田水驱开发效果评价中所选用的指标,根据统计的各指标所出现的频率,选取出现频率大于10%的指标构建了高含水油田水驱开发效果评价体系,该体系分为三级,一级指标包含开发技术因素和人为控制因素,二级指标包含井网完善状况、注水状况、含水变化状况、产油量变化状况、产液量变化状况、储采状况、开采程度、工作效果状况、管理状况和经济状况,三级指标包含了水驱储量控制程度、存水率等的23个指标,然后运用DEMATEL方法对所建立的评价体系中的指标进行了识别选择,通过对处理结果的分析,剔除了水驱储量控制程度、水驱储量动用程度、井网密度等7个影响度、被影响度、中心度和原因度都比较差的因素,最终识别出了存水率、水驱指数、耗水比、含水率、含水上升率等16个影响因素.

In the high water cut oilfield water flooding development effect evaluation factors affecting the choice of determines the evaluation result is good or bad. Different blocks, experts, time may be selected different index system. How to objectively identify key in many indicators index （key factors） is the problem to be solved in this paper. This paper statistics the scholars at home and abroad in high water cut oilfield water flooding development effect evaluation in the selection of indicators, according to the statistics of the frequency of every index, selecting frequency is more than 10% of the target to build the high water cut oil field water flooding development effect evaluation system. This system was divided into three levels： the first level indices included the development of technology and artificial factors; the second level indices included the condition of the well pattern, the condition of water injection, the change of water cut, the change of oil production, the change of fluid production, the condition of reserves and output, the degree of exploitation, the condition of working effect, management status and economic status; the third level indices included 23 indices such as water storage rate and the water flooding controlling reserve. Then, by using the DEMATEL method to establish the evaluation system of indicators for identification of choice, through the analysis of the processing result, excluding seven effect, the effect was, center and reasons for degrees are more bad factors such as the water drive reserves control degree, the water flooding reserves producing degree and the well spacing density, finally identified the water rate and water drive index, water ratio, moisture content and water cut rising 16 factors.