基于熵值法的新疆农村剩余劳动力转移影响因素耦合协调度分析

Affecting factors coupling coordination degree analysis on transfer of rural surplus labor in Xinjiang based on entropy

【目的】为丰富剩余劳动力转移理念,完善新疆劳动力转移政策,加大农村剩余劳动力转移规模,同步推进城镇化建设提供参考。【方法】采用熵值赋权法和耦合度、耦合协调度法,对新疆1997~2011年相关数据进行研究。【结果】从熵值赋权法结果来看,农村恩格尔系数、城镇化率、文盲率和教育财政支出4个序参量对新疆农村剩余劳动力转移的影响较显著。农村剩余劳动力转移影响因素指标体系下3个一层指标系统（经济因素系统、社会因素系统和劳动力因素系统）之间存在耦合关系,但耦合度指数较低,临近失调,且协调度长期处于衰退状态,3个一层指标系统中生产力因素对整体耦合协调度影响最大。【建议】应建立高效、平衡的农村剩余劳动力转移机制、引进先进技术、促进当地就业规模、健全农民工社会保障体系,以加快新疆农村剩余劳动力转移,推进城镇化建设。

【Objective】This research was aimed to provide references for enriching the notion of abundant surplus labor transfer, perfecting the policy of labor force transfer in Xinjiang, increasing the transfer of rural surplus labor force scale and promoting urbanization construction. 【Method】Entropy value method, coupling factor and coupling coordination degree were used to study the relevant data in 1997-2011 of Xinjiang. 【Result】From the entropy weighting method results, the significant factors influencing the transfer of rural surplus labor in Xinjiang were 4 order parameters including rural Engel coefficient, urbanization rate, illiteracy rate and education expenditure. Coupling relationship existed among the three first-layer indexes（economic factor subsystem, social factors subsystem, labor factor subsystem）, but the degree of coupling index was too low to near imbalanced. The coordination degree was in long-time recession. Among the three first-layer index system, productivity was the most influencing factor on the coupling coordination important. 【Suggestion】To accelerate the transfer of rural surplus labor in Xinjiang and promote urbanization construction, more efforts should be put in building an efficient and balanced system of rural surplus labor transfer, introducing advanced technology, promoting local hiring and improving social security system.