房地产价格波动的财富效应研究——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

Study on the Wealth Effect of Real Estate Price Fluctuation:The Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

基于31个省(直辖市、自治区)的面板数据,采用固定影响变系数模型对房地产财富效应进行估计.研究发现从全国范围看,房地产市场存在微弱的正财富效应,但从省域角度看,房地产财富效应表现各异,少部分省份已出现负的财富效应,表明房价上涨已影响了消费的正常增长.需要根据不同地区房地产市场特征,采取适当的政策措施,强化房地产正财富效应形成机制,推动经济转型升级.

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces（Municipalities directly under the Central Government,Autonomous Regions）,this paper estimates the wealth effect of the real estate industry by using fixed effect variable coefficient model.The study finds that the real estate market has a weak positive wealth effect nationwide,but it is different among the provinces.Negative wealth effect appears in a few provinces,showing that the rising house price has affected the normal growth of consumption.According to the characteristics of different areas in the real estate market,appropriate policy measures should be taken to strengthen the housing wealth effect mechanism and to promote economic transformation and upgrading.