论人民币汇率自由化的条件

Discussion on the Condition of the RMB Exchange Rate Liberalization

人民币汇率自由化需要各方成熟条件的配合,利率市场化、资本账户的完全放开和人民币汇率已达均衡水平是人民币自由化的必要条件。但从目前我国金融制度的设计来看,上述条件还未完备,首先利率市场化尚在逐步的推进之中,作为利率市场化最为核心的部分,存贷款利率的完全放开还有待时日;资本的账户开放尚在政策的考量之中,其次政策的出台还需兼顾国内外经济环境的配合。这就决定了人民币汇率自由化应该是一个渐行渐进的缓慢过程,否则过快的政策决定会招致更大的金融风险。

RMB exchange rate liberalization requires the cooperation of mature conditions from all parties ,the interest rate market ,full liberalization of the capital account and the RMB exchange rate has reached equilibrium level ,which is the necessary condition for the RMB liberalization .However ,from the current design of the financial system ,the above conditions have not be yet complete ,firstly the in‐terest rate market is still gradually advanced ,as the most core part of interest rate market ,the full liber‐alization of deposit and loan interest rate remains to be seen ;Capital account liberalization is still under consideration among the policies ,and the issuance of the policy needs to take into the domestic and inter‐national economic environment account .This determines the liberalization of RMB exchange rate should be a gradual slow process ;otherwise the too quick policy decisions will lead to greater financial risks .