都市更新中“超小区域”重大开发项目的人口影响研究——以闸北苏河湾地区为例

Population Effect of Major Urban Renewal Projects in Ultra-small Areas:A Case Study of the Suhewan Zone in Shanghai

以苏河湾地区为例,重大开发项目建设过程中区域人口与开发节奏、开发力度等具有非常紧密的联系,须根据"大拆大建"过程中拆、建进度与拆、建面积等对人口的影响来估算其对总人口的影响,并依照开发建设进度进行阶段性的处理。结果发现,以往规划中关于苏河湾仅5万人口的设定明显有悖于苏河湾人口的实际情况。苏河湾的案例表明对都市更新背景下大都市"超小区域"重大开发项目的人口影响要建立评估机制与动态监测机制,相关职能部门的公共服务与资源配置也要与阶段性的人口状况相适应。

This article uses the cohort component method to project the population effect of the Suhewan Zone in Shanghai.For this ultra-small Area,the planners projected the population according to the number of houses being demolished or constructed during the construction process.In my opinion,the number of only 50 000 people under urban planning is obviously non-factual.The Suhewan Zone case show that the demographic impact of major development projects of＂ultra small metropolitan area＂for urban renewal must be carefully treated.It is necessary to establish an evaluation mechanism and dynamic monitoring mechanism of population during the construction process.The public services and the allocation of resources of the relevant functional departments should also adapt to the population.