技术进步推动下的多国多部门碳排放与能源使用趋势研究

A Research on the Trends of Multi-country-section Carbon Emissions and Energy Uses Driven by Technology Progress

由经济生产过程中生产工艺的提高所带来的过程技术进步可以降低中间投入的需求,从而减少对能源的需求,降低碳排放。因此,提高过程技术水平是各国减少碳排放量的重要途径。作者以2012年的Jin模型为基础,构建了一个基于一般均衡的多国多部门经济模型,并将其与RICE模型的气候系统相结合,建立了一个经济系统与气候系统相互作用的气候-经济集成评估模型。在此模型基础上,对不同过程技术进步速率下各国、各部门碳排放与能源使用进行了模拟,模拟结果显示:过程技术进步速率的提高可以使各国各部门的能源使用高峰和碳排放高峰提前。在三种情景下,中国分别在2034年、2030年和2022年达到碳排放高峰,而在较激进的情景3下,中国从2007到2050年的累计碳排放可以减小到930亿吨碳(Gigatonnes of Carbon,Gt C),可以满足100Gt C的排放目标。此外,随着过程技术进步速率的提高,中国和印度的减排潜力最大;在各行业中,能源业的减排潜力最大,服务业次之。

The process-technology progress which is caused by the improvement of the productive technologies can reduce the demands of the intermediate inputs in productive process, and thus reduce the energy demands and carbon emissions. Thus, improving the levels of process technologies is an important way for global carbon emission abatement. In this paper, based on Jin＇s model （2012）, a general equilibrium model of multi-country-section economy was built. Coupled with the climate system of RICE model, a climate-economy integrated assessment model reflecting the interactions between the economic system and the climate system was built. Based on this model, this paper studies the carbon emissions and the energy demands of different countries and sections. The simulated outcomes show that the process-technology progress can bring on early peaks of energy demands and carbon emissions. Under the three different scenarios, China will reach its carbon emission peak at the year 2034, 2030, and 2022, respectively. In the more bold scenario 3, the accumulated carbon emission of China can reduce to 93GtC, accomplishing the abatement target of 100GtC. Besides, along with the progress of the process-technologies, the developing countries like China and India have higher abatement potentials, while in the section, the energy section and the service sections have higher abatement potentials.