以灰色关联理论分析民航不安全事件关键原因

Analyze of the Key Factors for Civil Aviation Safety Incidents Based on Gray Relational Theory

本文依据中国民用航空安全信息网上近五年来业界所有不安全事件的数据,将数据按原因分类,运用灰色关联理论分析方法,对各原因的重要度进行关联度分析。结果表明:与不安全事件相关的因素主要有三点,即机组失误、地面保障、天气原因,其中机组失误与不安全事件的发生关系最为密切;地面保障因细节较多,其关联程度也较大;由于天气原因的不确定因素较多,也应成为采取预防措施的关键入手点。论文最后针对分析所得的三点关键因素,提出了相应的预防和减少不安全事件发生的建议。

Classify all of the Civil Aviation safety incidents by causes and find the key factors, which are very significant to improve the level of safety for industry. In this paper, based on the data of safety incidents from civil aviation safety net of China over the past five years, classify the data by causes, and then use the method of gray relational theory, analyze the relational degree of importance for each category cause. The results show that there are three key reasons related to the safety incidents, the miss of crews, ground service and weather. The miss of crews is the most closely related to the safety incidents; owing to the ground service is extremely complex, the relational degree is also intimate; the factor of weather is uncertain, so this point will also be one key to take action to prevent safety incidents. Finally, aimed at the three key factors from analysis, the research present appropriate recommendations to prevent and reduce safety incidents.