G7国家和中国碳排放演变及中国峰值预测

Histories of G7′s and China′s Carbon Emission Policies and A Forecast of China′s Peak Emission

我国是CO2排放大国,又是发展中国家,还处在工业化中期向后期过渡的阶段。研究西方国家碳排放演变历史以及经济增长对于碳减排的推动作用,对预测我国的碳排放峰值具有重要的参考价值。选取G7国家,即美国、日本、英国、法国、意大利和加拿大（由于数据限制,本研究不包括德国）作为参考,以2005国际美元作为经济指标的统计基准,以人均GDP作为自变量,构建了碳强度指数模型。首先考察了G7国家人均GDP达到10000美元之后碳强度的演变,分析了各国碳强度的衰减速率及其上下限。选取我国2005~2012年的数据,进行碳强度指数回归,并用指数函数进行模拟。模拟结果表明,与G7国家相比,我国碳强度的衰减速率属于中等水平,仅相当于衰减速率最高的英、法两国的67%,进入10000美元人均GDP阶段时的碳强度起点属于低水平。根据我国以往碳强度衰减速率估计,我国可能于2027年达到峰值,彼时人均GDP达到24206美元;如果未来可以达到英、法两国的衰减速率,则可能于2021年达到峰值,人均GDP达到17112美元;如果参照其他G7国家的历史水平,则将于2033年达到峰值,人均GDP将达到33368美元。因此,我国还需更高的经济发展水平来支撑碳排放峰值的出现。此外,我国迫切需要从多方面入手,进一步推进＂节能减排＂,我国能源结构改进潜力巨大但亟需进行调整。

As a developing country,China is a major CO2 emitter in the world and is now transitioning from the middle to the late stage of industrialization.A study into western countries ′ histories of carbon emission and the positive influence of economic growth on carbon emission reduction will provide important reference for a forecast of the occurrence of carbon emission peak in China.Using G7 countries,namely the United States,Japan,the United Kingdom,France,Italy and Canada（Germany not included due to data limitations）,as reference and the international US Dollar in 2005 as the statistic benchmark for economic indicators,researchers developed a carbon intensity index model with per capita GDP used as an independent variable.They first studied the evolution of carbon intensities of G7 countries after these countries ′ per capita GDPs reached 10000 dollars and analyzed the rates of decay of carbon intensities of these countries as well as their upper and lower limits.They then conducted carbon intensity exponential regression based on China ′ s data between 2005 and 2012 and simulation based on exponential functions.The simulation results show that compared with G7 countries,China has a moderate rate of decay of carbon intensity,which is only 67% of those of the United Kingdom and France,which are the highest among G7 countries and that the starting point of carbon intensity when China ′ s per capita GDP reaches 10000 dollars（international US Dollar in2005） is on a low level.Based on China ′ s previous rates of decay of carbon intensity,it is estimated that China′ s carbon emissions may peak in 2027,when the country′ s per capita GDP reaches 24206 dollars.If China can reach the rate of decay of carbon intensity of the United Kingdom or France,China′ s carbon emissions may peak in 2021,when the country′ s per capita GDP reaches 17112 dollars.If using the historical levels of other G7 countries as reference,China′ s carbon emissions should peak in 2033,when the country′ s per capita GDP reaches 33368 dollars.Therefore,China needs a higher level of economic growth to sustain the occurrence of its carbon emission peak.In addition,China needs to take a multipronged approach to pushing energy saving and emission reduction and there is an urgent need to adjust its energy mix although there is much room for an improvement of its energy mix.