页岩气与常规气的投资差异分析

An Analysis of Differences between Investments in Shale Gas and Conventional Gas

采用EIA发布的美国页岩气开采数据,基于投资与钻井数的关系,用钻井数代替投资量,运用向量自回归(VAR)模型,对页岩气、常规天然气的"投资-产量"关系进行实证研究,对比分析页岩气与常规天然气投资对产量的驱动差异。以水平井数近似代替页岩气投资量,以直井数作为常规天然气的钻井投资量。结果表明,现阶段页岩气投资对产量的驱动作用要强于常规天然气,增加页岩气的钻井投资量对产量的提高有较为明显的拉动作用,而常规天然气增加钻井投资量却无法促进产量的提高。分析其原因,一是所处的开发阶段不同,二是单井生命周期不同。虽然中国目前在页岩气领域与美国差距较大,但是技术进步和投入增加有助于消除这种差距,美国的一些成功经验也可以运用到中国页岩气的商业化开采过程中。建议我国要加大对页岩气领域的科研投入,积极落实"引进来"战略,将国外的先进技术引入到我国。将更多的民营企业作为新的投资主体引入到页岩气产业中,从基础设施、法律制度、金融服务三个方面共同构建有利于页岩气开发的投资环境,同时要加快我国天然气定价机制改革。

Using American shale gas production data released by EIA and based on the relationship between investment and the number of wells drilled（using the number of wells to represent investment amounts）,researchers conducted an empirical study on the investment-production relations of shale gas and conventional natural gas with the help of a VAR model and examined the differences between the driving effects of shale gas and conventional natural gas investments on production.The number of horizontal wells was used to ap-proximately represent shale gas investments and that of vertical wells was used to represent investments in conventional gas wells.The study results show that shale gas investments currently have a stronger driving ef-fect on production than conventional gas investments.Increasing investment in shale gas wells can considerably drive forward the growth of production,whle doing so for conventoinal gas wells is unable to promote the increase in production.There are two reasons for this result.Firslty,the two types of gases are now in different stages of development.Secondly,the overall prodution lives of the wells for the two gases are different.Although China still lags far behind the United States in shale gas production,technical advancement and investment increase can help close this gap.Some successful American experience can be used in China ′s commercial production of shale gas.China should increase its investment in shale gas technology and aggressively introduce advanced foreign technology.More private businesses can be encouraged to invest in the shale gas industry as major players.The country should strive to create an investment environment favorable to shale gas development,in terms of infrastructure,legal system and financial service.China should also quicken its pace of reforming its natural gas pricing system.