动物疫病防控策略评估

Assessment of Animal Disease Prevention Strategy

由于动物疫病的负外部性和公共性,有必要采取防控策略。评估防控策略有助于了解防控的成本效益,并为完善防控策略提供参考。目前该领域的综述尚不多见,且广度和深度不够。系统地对现阶段的研究现状与趋势进行了总结,发现目前的研究包括总体动物疫病防控策略评估、具体动物疫病防控策略评估、不同动物疫病防控策略间的效果对比与防控策略优化3个部分,主要以成本收益分析为理论框架。最新策略的跟踪评估、优化方案选择标准的研究成果较少,且研究方法、分析视角和理论框架还可以继续创新。根据动物疫病防控策略评估精准化的要求,未来的研究趋势侧重于随机动态防疫策略的评估和动态优化,将流行病学与经济学相结合的的流行病学经济模型将是未来研究方法的主流。由于评估策略涉及到制度层面,尝试建立制度经济理论框架应该更能满足研究的需要。

Because of the negative externality and publicity of animal epidemic diseases,it is necessary to adopt prevention and control measures. Assessment of these prevention and control strategies is helpful for understanding the cost effectiveness and providing reference to improve these strategies. Currently review articles in this area are only few,and their width and depth are insuficient. This paper summarized systematically the present status and trends of current studies,and found that those studies included 3 parts such as assessment of overall animal disease prevention and control strategies,assessment of specific animal disease prevention and control strategies,the effect contrast among different animal disease prevention and control strategies and optimization of prevention and control strategies,which mainly took cost benefit analysis as theoretical framework. However,there were few reasearchs on follow-up assessment of the latest strategies and selective criteria for optimization scheme. Besides,the research method,analytical insight and theoretical framework could still be innovated. According to the requirements for precise assessment on animal disease prevention and control strategy,the future research should lay emphasis on evaluation of stochastic dynamic epidemic prevention strategy and dynamic optimization. Economic model of epidemiology,which combined epidemiology and economics,would be the mainstream of future study method. Due to the evaluation strategy was involved in institusion prospect,try to establish institutional economics theory framework might be able to meet the needs of present studies.