老龄化、城镇化与我国房地产价格研究——基于面板平滑转换模型的分析

The Research on Ageing,Urbanization and the Prices of Chinese Real Estate——Based on the Analysis of Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model

人口年龄结构和城镇化的发展变化分别作为人口结构在时间和空间上的表现,是影响住房价格变动的关键性因素。在我国老龄化和城镇化的背景下,本文运用非线性的面板平滑转换模型研究了它们对房地产价格所产生的影响。实证结果表明,人口数量的增长确实是推动我国房地产价格上涨的重要因素,这种影响呈现明显的非线性特征,老龄化程度的加剧会减弱这种正向影响使房价下跌,而城镇化水平的增加则会增强这种正向影响使房价出现上涨。本文的研究结论对我国房地产市场调控和城镇化过程规划及人口政策调整具有政策启示。

The age structure of population and the development change of urbanization are the temporal and spatial manifestations of population structure respectively and the key factors that affect the changes of housing prices. Under the background of Chinese population aging and urbanization progress,this paper studies their effects on the prices of real estate by using nonlinear panel smooth transition regression model. The empirical results indicate that the population growth is really the important factor that pushes the price rise of Chinese real estate and this influence shows significant nonlinear characteristics. The worsening of population ageing will weaken this positive effect and lead to the drop of housing prices. But the improvement of urbanization level will enhance this positive effect and lead to the rise of housing prices. The research conclusions of this paper have policy inspiration on the control of Chinese real estate market and the planning and population adjustment of urbanization process.