一种基于复杂网络的网络安全态势预测机制

Network security situation prediction mechanism based on complex network

针对现有态势预测方法大都是对态势值的预测,并未揭示网络态势要素动力学特征的问题,提出了一种基于复杂网络的网络安全态势预测机制,可方便而又直观地追溯安全态势中数值波动的动力学特征。其次在该机制中提出基于复杂网络的马尔可夫预测方法,实现对安全状态的有效预测。通过仿真实验分析,该机制在一定程度上能突出系统的本质行为,且能较准确地预测未来的安全状态。

For most current forecast methods only focusing on the prediction of situation value and not revealing the problem of dynamics features of the network situational factors,this paper proposed a complex network based network security situation prediction mechanism. The mechanism was convenient and intuitive to trace dynamics behavior of the numerical fluctuations in the security situation. In addition,in order to predict security state,the thesis proposed Markov prediction method based on complex network. Through simulation analysis,the mechanism can reflect the essential condition of the system in a certain extent and predict the future security status more accurately.