基于行程时间可靠性的交通影响范围确定方法研究

Study of Traffic Impact Area Based on Travel Time Reliability

交通影响范围的确定是交通影响评价的基础,也是交通影响评价的难点问题。现阶段国外主观确定交通影响范围的方法不适用于我国,国内已有的模型方法存在参数标定和假设过于理想化等问题而不能被广泛应用。而本文提出的基于行程时间可靠性的确定交通影响范围的方法,在考虑了出行时间的基础上,同时考虑了对出行者出行路径选择行为影响较大的行程时间可靠性因素,提出了一种更切合实际道路交通情况的、操作更简便的确定交通影响范围的新方法。最后本文选取了北京市的某一个具体开发建设项目进行实例应用验证,并与目前应用的其他交通影响范围确定方法进行了比较分析,说明了本方法的可操作性和适用性。

The determination of the traffic impact area is the basis and critical issue of traffic impact analysis.At present,the foreign subjective method is not suitable for application in China.And the current domestic model and method are manipulation difficulties on calibrating parameters and overidealistic in road assumptions so that too hard to be widely used.In this paper,the method to study the traffic impact area is based on the travel time reliability,which not only considered the time factor,but also the uncertainty of travel time that has a great influence in traveler＇s route choice behavior.This is a new method that more practical to realistic road traffic conditions.At last,the method has been used in a Beijing practical developing project to improve its maneuverability and applicability.