我国出口农产品升级路径选择——基于向量自回归模型的实证分析

Path Choice for China Agricultural Export Upgradation——An Empirical Analysis Based on Vector Auto-regression Model

农产品出口贸易在我国的国民经济和粮食安全中发挥着及其重要的作用。基于企业异质性贸易理论,利用1996-2012年我国农产品出口贸易的数据,分析了我国农产品出口的二元贸易边际。结果显示,农产品出口主要依靠集约边际实现增长。通过计算我国出口农产品复杂度,运用向量自回归模型对影响出口农产品复杂度的因素进行分析,结果显示,我国农业技术发展对出口农产品复杂度的提升有着较大的影响作用。

Agricultural export plays a vital role in China national economy and food security. Based on the enterprise heterogeneity trade theory and the data about China agricultural product export from 1996 to 2012, this paper analyzes the dual trade margin of China agricultural export. The result shows that China agricuhural export growth mainly relies on intensive margin. Based on calculating China agricultural export product complexity and analyzing via vector auto -regression model the factors influencing agricultural export product complexity, it is concluded that China agricultural technology development plays a great role in promoting agricultural export product Complexity.