中国能源消耗国际转移规模及驱动因素研究——基于完全分解均值法处理的I-O SDA模型

China Energy Consumption International Transfer Scale and Its Driving Factors——Based on I-O SDA Model

利用来自六个国家或地区的共八张投入产出表,借助投入产出分析,从贸易内涵能源净值角度对我国2000-2013年能源消耗的国际转移规模进行了估算,并基于完全分解均值法处理的I-O SDA结构分解模型,分析了四大驱动因素对我国贸易内涵能源量变化的影响。测算结果显示,我国对外贸易内涵能源长期处于净出口状态。无论出口还是进口层面,中国能源消耗对外转移规模的迅速增加主要都是由贸易规模因素驱动的,而我国尚未发生根本性转变的贸易结构是引致贸易规模强力驱动能耗国际转移的深层次原因。此外,能源消耗强度因素的变化能够在一定程度上抑制我国能耗的国际转移。

Based on eight input - output tables from six countries and regions and an input - output analysis, this paper calculates China energy consumption international transfer scale from 2000 to 2011 from the perspective of embodied trade energy and by means of I - O SDA model while analyzing the effects of four driving factors on the changes in China embodied trade energy. The calculated results show that China embodied trade energy has long been in a state of net export; that in both export and import the increase in China energy consumption international transfer scale is mainly driven by trade scale and its underlying cause is China＇s trade structure which has not been fundamentally changed; and that the changes in energy consumption intensity can restrain the international energy transfer to some extent.