重力坝安全运行风险评价

Risk Assessment Of Gravity Dam Safety Operation

不同的大坝在不同程度上均存在着病险隐患和失事风险,因此大坝安全风险分析与风险防控越来越受到业界的普遍关注。本文在详细统计国内外大坝失事资料基础上,分析了重力坝的失事风险原因、失事模式及失事路径,构建了包括承载能力风险和安全运行风险的重力坝安全风险评价体系,提出基于原观监测资料的重力坝运行风险评价方法。首先通过区间定量分析和集值统计两种模式分别获取各类风险的评价值;再运用Chquet和Sugeno两种模糊积分算子构建模糊积分模型综合评价重力坝安全运行风险。该方法理论可行、结论客观、可操作性强,运用于官地重力坝安全运行风险评价取得良好效果。

Every dam exists defects and risks of failure in different degrees.Therefore ,the safety risk analysis and risk prevention and controlling has been paid more attention by the industry.Based on the deep-analysis of dam failure at home and abroad,the paper focus on the failure cause,mode and path of the gravity dam.The safe system of risk assessment including the bearing capacity and safety operation of gravity dam are set up. The assessment methods for the operation risk of the gravity dam based on the original monitoring data based on the reliability analysis are proposed.The value for kinds of risk factors could get from interval analysis and Set-Valued statistics.Based on the Chquet and Sugeno fuzzy integral model ,the value of the safety operation risk,applying related methods of fuzzy theory,are discussed.Applying the models and methods presented in this paper,safety operation risk of the Guandi gravity dam is comprehensively analyzed and achieved a good result.