中国对东南亚蚕丝贸易的现状和合作前景

The Status and Prospects of Silk Trade from China to Southeast Asia

半个世纪的贸易数据表明,中国具有蚕丝出口优势,东南亚蚕丝贸易是逆差。以贸易数量和金额来看,东南亚是蚕丝进口远大于出口为主要特征的区域,我国对东南亚丝类的数量贸易竞争力指数和金额贸易竞争力指数表明中国在东南亚市场的蚕丝贸易具有强竞争力。1986-2011年的蚕丝出口贸易结合度,中国对东南亚的高于东南亚对中国的,且在波动中增大,表明中国出口结构与东南亚需求结构的一致性在加强;中国对东南亚各国之间的蚕丝贸易结合度有显著差异性。未来几年中,东南亚需求市场的潜力较大,但在2020年以前中国面向东南亚的蚕丝出口数量占中国出口总量的比重有限,需要进一步采取措施加强互惠合作并扩大东南亚蚕丝贸易。

According to the trade data from FAO over half a century, China has the advantages of silk exports to the nations in Southeast Asia, and in Southeast Asia the silk trade was deficit. In terms of the quantity and value of silk trade, Southeast Asia is the region with the main trade features where the export was larger than import of silk during the past. In China the trade competitiveness index by the silk quantity to Southeast Asia and the trade competitiveness index of val- ues amount indicated that the silk trade competitiveness has been strong from China to the nations in Southeast Asia. From 1986 to 2011, the trade intensity index of silk from China to Southeast Asia was larger than that from Southeast Asia to China, and it increase in volatility, showing consistency of the characterization China~ export structure and the demand structure in Southeast Asia was strengthening. In terms of the trade intensity index, the silk exported from China to South- east Asian nations were largely different. In the next few years, in the Southeast Asian market the demand potential of silk should be larger, but the quantity of silk exports from China to Southeast Asia accounted for the proportion of the total silk exports depending on China will be limited before 2020. Then it should be needed to take further measures to strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation and expand the potential market of the silk export from China to the nations in Southeast Asia.