基于Lotka-Volterra的高校消防安全意识传播模型

Fire safety awareness propagation on campus based on Lotka-Volterra model

针对高校消防安全工作的现状、火灾事故的成因进行分析,指出大部分火灾事故都是由于学生的不安全消防意识、行为引起的。采用Lotka-Volterra模型,将学生分为意识上具有理性和危险两个相互作用的群体,研究其在高校的动态传播过程。通过模型研究和仿真分析,找到符合目前高校消防安全的实际情况的平衡点及其影响因素。结合行为安全管理机制提出适合高校自身发展和管理的消防安全管理工作流程方案,引导控制高校学生的理性消防安全意识,把具有危险消防安全意识及其行为的学生人数限制在最小范围,有效地减少和消除高校的消防安全隐患和事故。

According to the present situation of the fire safety work in colleges and universities, the cause of the fire accidents was analyzed, and it was pointed out that hazardous fire aware- ness of students is the main reason of the most fire accidents. This paper divided awareness of students into the rational and hazardous to study the propagation on campus via Lotka-Volter- ra model. Through simulation and analysis of the model, the balance point in accordance with the actual situation on campus and the impact factors were found. Finally, combined with the behavior-based safety management system concept, putting for-ward some specific measures to control and guide students ra- tional fire safety awareness, inhibit and eliminate hazardous fire safety awareness of students in order to limit the students who have hazardous safety awareness and irregularities in minimum, which can reduce and eliminate the security risks and accidents effectively.