灰色关联弹性模型在公路客运量预测中的运用

The Application of Grey Correlation-Elastic Model in the Prediction of Road Passenger Transport Volume

根据公路客运量预测受到多因素影响以及非线性的特点[1],选取了影响公路客运量的主要因素,并计算出关联因素对公路客运量的关联度,进一步提出了灰色关联弹性模型预测公路客运量的方法。该方法提出灰色综合弹性系数的概念,基于灰色关联弹性模型的原理,根据若干年已知数据计算得出的灰色综合弹性系数并预测出后面紧邻若干年份的客运量。将该模型运用到对我国公路客运量的预测,发现预测精度同传统弹性系数法相比有了一定提高,验证了该模型具有一定的实用性和参考价值。

The prediction of highway passenger transport volume is nonlinear and is influenced by many factors. On the basis of the characteristics,this paper selects some main influencing factors of of road passenger transport volume and calculates out their grey correlation degree. What＇s more,this paper puts forward the Grey Correlation-Elastic Model to forecast road passenger transport volume. The method proposes the concept of grey-comprehensive-elastic coefficient. On the basis of Grey CorrelationElastic Model and several years of known datum,the article count figures out the grey-comprehensive- elastic coefficient and the value of road passenger transport volume of some later years. After the application of the model into the forecasting of China＇s road passenger transport volume,this text finds out that the Grey Correlation-Elastic Model can improve the prediction accuracy of road passenger transport volume as compared to the traditional elasticcoefficient method,which turns out that the model has some practical uses and reference values.