对外投资项目风险评估方法研究

Research on Risk Evaluation Method for Foreign Investment Project

研究对外投资项目风险准确评估问题。由于对外投资项目风险评估数据源主要来自专家经验和仿真数据,评估指标间存在依存关系和反馈作用,导致传统评估方法很难进行精确评估。为了提高评估精度,将改进后的群体网络层次分析法与模糊综合评价法相结合,提出了一种适用于对外投资项目风险评估的方法。首先利用德尔菲法建立对外投资项目风险评估指标体系,然后利用群体网络层次分析法确定各指标的综合权重,最后使用模糊评判模型对风险进行计算。以具体实例进行仿真,结果表明改进方法可以有效的评估对外投资项目风险等级,使专家经验较好地服务于风险评估过程,提高了评估结果的科学性和准确性,为对外投资项目风险提供了一种新的评估方法。

In order to improve the evaluation precision for foreign investment project, a suitable risk evaluation method is proposed based on improved group analytic network process and fuzzy comprehensive judgment. Firstly, Delphi method is used to establish the risk evaluation index system. Then the comprehensive weight of index is determined by using group analytic network process. Finally, a fuzzy judgment model is used to calculate the risk. It is applied to a specific application example. The simulation results show that the proposed method can effectively evaluate the level of risk, which improves the scientificity and accuracy of evaluation results.