基于人粮关系的云南粮食产能安全动态分析

Dynamic Analysis of Grain Security Based on Human-grain Relationship in Yunnan Province

运用土地资源承载力模型构建人粮关系状态指数,分别按温饱型、小康型和富裕型粮食消费标准分析2000~2012年云南人粮关系状态,并在此基础上通过灰色系统GM（1,1）模型对未来粮食产量与人口数量进行预测,从而对未来人粮关系状态与粮食产能安全状况进行评估。研究表明：按温饱型粮食消费标准评价,人粮关系处于人粮平衡状态;按小康型粮食消费标准计算,人粮关系处于由人口超载向人粮平衡过度的状态;按富裕型粮食消费标准计算,人粮关系处于人口超载的状态;未来云南土地资源提供的粮食能满足全省居民温饱型和小康型的粮食消费需求,但提供富裕型粮食消费的压力较大。

By using land carrying capacity modelconstruct the human - grain relationship index, analysis of human - grain relationship between 2000 and 2012, according to warm - and - full, well - to - do and richness levels of food consumption, on this basis using grey system model forecast food production and population, andevaluatehuman - grain relationship and grain security in the future. The result shows that： according to warm - and - full food consumption standard, human -grain relationship are in balance ; according to well- to -do food consumption standard, human - grain relationship are changing from population overload to balance ; according to richness levels of food consumption, human - grain relationship are in population overload; In the future,land resources provided by food can meet food con- sumption levels of warm - and - full and well - to - do, however, it＇s stressful to achieve richness food consumption level.