风险链视角下建设项目进度风险评估

Novel Method for Schedule Risks Assessment in Construction Projects from Perspective of Risk Chain

归纳出风险链的概念,并提出以风险链为评估对象的进度风险评估方法:利用去主观化的方法,分析由专家小组给出的进度风险因素间关联关系的评价信息,确定项目进度风险因素间的关联关系;根据关联关系建立风险关联网络,并阐述将风险关联网络分割为独立风险链的方法;将项目进度计划、风险链属性等信息纳入到蒙特卡洛仿真过程进行模拟,并提出以仿真输出结果为计算依据的风险链评估公式.在算例中,阐述并分析该方法的可行性和有效性.

The concept of risk chain is put forward,and a novel approach was proposed for assessing schedule risks.First,in order to find out the interrelationships among risks,the evaluation information provided by apanel of experts was analyzed by an objectifying process; secondly, a riskinteraction network was established based on the identified interrelationships,and the method to divide a risk-interaction network into some unattached risk chains was explained;thirdly,a formula was provided to assess the various risk chains,according to obtained parameters from a simulation process taking the information of project schedule and properties of risk chains into consideration. Finally, a numerical example was analyzed to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach.