通江碧溪流域降水径流趋势分析

Analysis of the variation trend of rainfall-runoff relationship of Bixi basin on the Tong river

基于线性倾向回归分析、Mann-Kendall统计检验方法、肯德尔(Kendall)秩次相关法和Spearman秩次相关检验等4种趋势分析方法,对通江碧溪流域1964-2011年的实测降水径流资料状态变化进行趋势分析。结果表明:1964-2011年间,降水径流整体上无明显变化趋势,但20世纪80年代后降水径流发生明显减少趋势,径流系数即降水径流关系整体上呈显著减小趋势,尤其80年代后减少趋势更显著。

Based on the annual precipitation and runoff data of Bixi basin from 1964-2011,the change trend of rainfall-runoff relationship is statistically analysed by 4 methods. The results show that the annual precipitation and runoff shows a weak trend during research period, but shows a obvious decline after 1980s when the rainfall-runoff relationship changed significantly with Mutations in about 1980.