Logistic回归模型在慢阻肺发病因素分析中的应用

Application of logistic regression model in analysis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease risk factors

目的利用Logistic回归模型探讨慢阻肺相关发病因素,以更好地指导临床防治工作。方法利用整群随机抽样法在2014年9~10月对本地区40岁以上人群进行调查和肺功能检测,并构建Logistic回归模型对相关发病因素进行分析。结果有效纳入调查1330例,慢阻肺患病率9.92%,男性患病率为14.66%,显著高于女性的6.77%（P〈0.05）。单因素Logistic分析,年龄、性别、室外空气污染、主动吸烟等因素与慢阻肺发病之间有统计学关系（P均〈0.05）;多因素Logistic分析室内通风、室外空气污染、儿时反复发生支气管-肺部感染、被动吸烟、主动吸烟、年龄、职业接触粉尘与慢阻肺发病之间有统计学关系（P均〈0.05）。结论本地区慢阻肺患病率较高,经Logistic回归分析,相关发病因素有室内通风、室外空气污染、儿时反复发生支气管-肺部感染、被动吸烟、主动吸烟、年龄、职业接触粉尘等。

Objective To explore the risk factors of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease by the Logistic regression model, in order to guide the clinical prevention and treatment better. Methods From September to October 2014, people aged over 40 years in local area were investigated and pulmonary function tested by cluster random sampling method. Risk factors were analysised by the Logistic regression model. Results 1330 cases were effective included in the investigation, the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease prevalence rate was 9.92%, the prevalence rate of male was 14.66%, significantly higher than that of the female（6.77%）,（P〈0.05）. Single factor analysis of Logistic, a statistical relationship between age, gender, outdoor air pollution, active smoking and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease（P all 〈0.05）; multi factor analysis of Logistic indoor ventilation, outdoor air pollution and childhood recurrent pulmonary infection, passive smoking, smoking, age, occupational exposure to active dust and COPD morbidity with statistical relations（P all〈0.05）. Conclusion The COPD prevalence rate of local area is higher, indoor ventilation, outdoor air pollution, childhood recurrent bronchial pulmonary infection, passive smoking, active smoking, age, occupation exposure to dust etc are the risk factors through the Logistic regression analysis.