变电站经济运行年限区间评估研究

Research on economical operating life interval evaluation of substation

针对现阶段电网规划、改造等相关决策缺乏变电站寿命依据的问题,将最小二乘支持向量机、全寿命周期成本理论和区间分析法应用到变电站寿命评估中。对变电站外部运行环境和自身质量状况进行了综合分析,在考虑变电站不同运行年限的情况下,建立了上述两种因素对变电站缺陷级故障、失效级故障和事故级故障3类故障率的影响关系,提出了一种变电站经济运行年限区间的评估方法。在3类故障率变化下,计算了变电站的年维修成本区间和故障成本区间,最后将变电站年平均成本最小的运行年数区间作为变电站的经济运行年限区间。研究结果表明,最终计算得到的变电站经济运行年限区间能为电网规划、变电站改造等决策提供有益指导,进一步提高电网规划与运维决策的科学性。

Aiming at the problem that planning and retrofit of power network require more evidences based on substation life,least squares support vector machine,the theory of life cycle cost and interval analysis were investigated. After operating environment and quality condition of substation were analyzed,the influence of factors above on the failure rate of the three types of failure which are ordinary failure,larger failure and catastrophic failure were established considering different enlistment ages of substation. A method was presented to estimate economical operating life interval of substation. Based on the change of the three types of failure rate,annual maintenance cost interval and failure cost interval were calculated. At last,the time interval with the minimum annual average cost was regarded as economical operating life interval of substation. The results indicate that proposed method is beneficial for decision-makings such as network planning and substation retrofit,and can further improve scientific character of power network planning and decision-making of operation and maintenance.