五十五年来忻州地区气候变化分析

Analysis of the Climatic Changes in Xinzhou District in 55 Years

基于山西省忻府区气象局1959年～2013年气象数据资料，运用一元回归分析法、距平分析法以及Mann—Kendall方法分析了研究区气温、降水、蒸发等气候要素变化情况．结果显示，55年来研究区年平均气温波动上升，趋势缓慢，增长率约为0．08℃／10a；年平均降水量呈减少趋势，减少率约为-2．16mm／10a；年平均蒸发量下降趋势明显，下降率达-59．3mm／10a；M-K突变检验表明，55来忻州地区年平均气温和年平均蒸发量的突变点分别出现在2011年和1977年，而年平均降水量变化未出现突变．

Based upon the weather data of meteorological bureau in Xinfu District of Shanxi Province from 1959 to 2013, the climatic changes including the temperature, the precipitation and the evaporation are analyzed using the simple analysis of regression method, anomaly analysis method, Mann-Kendall method and so on. The results indicate that the annual average temperature in the study area in 55 years is slowly fluctuating upward with a speed of 0.08℃ per 10 years; what＇ s more, the annual average precipita- tion in the overall shows the decreasing trend and the rate is -2.16 mm per 10 years; thirdly, the decreasing rate of annual average evaporation is down to - 59.3 mm per 10 years, which states that evaporation decreases obviously. According to the mutation analy- sis of Mann-Kendall method, the mutations of the mean temperature and mean evaporation are in 2011 and 1977, respectively, and the mutation of the mean precipitation does not appear.