新型工业化与新型城镇化的关系研究

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis on the Relation between New Type Industrialization and New Type Urbanization

学界对工业化、城镇化水平测算关注的较多,但对两者关系进行实证研究较少。本文从我国新型工业化和新型城镇化关系的理论分析入手,针对两者之间的关系,首先采用格兰杰(Granger)因果关系检验方法,得出新型工业化是城镇化的原因,而新型城镇化不是新型工业化的原因;然后运用协整理论和误差修正模型,进一步论证新型工业化和新型城镇化两者关系存在长期稳定性,但新型城镇化发展明显滞后于工业化的发展。今后,通过新型工业化和新型城镇化互动发展,加快促进新型城镇化发展由速度型向质量型转型势在必行。

The stage of industrialization and urbanization is sufficiently discussed in literatures, but there is little concern about new type industrialization and new type urbanization in empirical analysis. This paper carries out the analysis from the relation between new type industrialization and new type urbanization, focusing on the relation between them, firstly, the paper uses the Granger causality test, finds out that new type industrialization is the reason of new type urbanization, while new type urbanization is not the reason of new type industrialization; then, using the cointegration test and error correction model, this paper proves that there is one long-term stationary relation between new type industrialization and new type urbanization, only that new type urbanization lagged new type industrialization obviously. In future it is imperative to promote new type urbanization to develop more quality rather than rapidity.