受径流影响下的感潮河段洪水预报新方法研究

Study on new methods of flood forecasting for tidal reach affected by runoff

丹东潮位站位于鸭绿江下游,控制河段水流型态较为复杂,其潮位既受自上而下的天然径流控制,又受自下而上的潮汐顶托影响。文中依据历史实测系列资料,综合考虑上游不同来水、下游不同潮汐变化期等影响因素,采用两种方法进行丹东站洪峰水位预报,潮水位预报精度得到了明显的提高,能及时准确提前预报出丹东站不同洪水情况下的潮(洪)水位,为丹东地区防汛、抗灾、减灾等提供技术支撑。

The Dandong tidal station is located in the downstream of the Yalujiang river, the flow conformation is complex in its control reach, the tidal level is influenced not only by the natural river flow from upstream to downstream, but also by the backwater of tide from downstream to upstream. Comprehensively considering the factors of different river flow situations in upstream and different tidal variation from downstream, the flood peak level of Dandong station is forecast by using the two methods based on the historical measured series data. The precision of tidal level forecast is improved obviously, at the same time, the tidal level(flood stage) of Dandong station under different flood situation could be forecasted timely and accurately, which could provide the technical support for the flood control and the disaster reduction in Dandong area.