我国农业发展研究:增长方式与要素分解——兼论农业就业与对策

Research on the Development of Agriculture in China: the Growth Mode and Factor Decomposition

源于对农业"增产不增收"以及"农业就业"问题的思考,选取1978—2013年研究时段,通过索洛残差法(SR)、隐性变量法(LV)以及潜在产出法(PO)对我国农业生产进行全要素增长率(TFP)以及规模报酬、要素贡献度做简要分析。分析表明:第一,我国农业生产全要素生产率增长率呈现波动式发展,增长趋向低水平稳态上升下降格局交错趋同、涨跌并存;第二,阶段性显著且成"v"形,与农业增长态势和要素投入之间存在较强的关联性;第三,农业生产的全要素生产率增长中,技术贡献率较为突出,技术改善贡献为负,要素投入效应较小。

To examine the problem that the output has increased but the peasants＇ income has not,as well as the problem of ＂agricultural unemployment＂, this paper studies the data from 1978 to 2013. The Solow residual method （SR）, latent variable method （LV） and potential output method （PO） are used to make a brief analysis on TFP growth rate （TFP） of the agricultural production, the return of its scale and factor contribution degree in China. The results show that, first, agricultural production and the growth rate of total factor productivity growth in China tend to be fluc- tuating, and the growth rate tends to remain stable at low level and rising trend alternates with the falling trend; second, they are significant at some stages and show a ＂V＂ shape, and there are strong correlations between the growth trend of agriculture and element input; third, in TFP, the contribution rate of technology is the most prominent, that of technolo- gy improvement is negative, and the effects of innut factc^r~ ar~ ｜~