时间序列预测模型在中小企业中的应用研究

Application Research of Time Series Prediction Model in Small and Medium-sized Enterprises

文章应用几种不同时间序列预测方法对中小企业销售额进行建模并预测，旨在建立适用于中小企业的预测方法和预测模型，收集了某企业某产品2006~2012年各月销售额数据，利用时间序列中的回归模型、ARIMA模型对其进行拟合建模，并运用各模型对2013年前6个月的销售额进行了预测及比较分析，从中选出预测精度相对较高的模型。

This paper uses several different time series prediction models to build model and predict sales .Objective to build an optimal model for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises. Methods：Collected 2006-2012 each month of sales data of one product in a enterprise. Regression models＆ARIMA model are used to fit on the modeling and predict the sales of the first six months of 2013. At last, the relatively higher precision model is selected by analyzing and comparing to the predicted sales.